For years, the conversation about machines taking over human jobs revolved around automation, robots, and humanoids. However, a new contender has emerged on the scene, one that poses a more significant threat – generative artificial intelligence (AI) models like ChatGPT.
What started as a simple conversational tool using prompts has the potential to replace human workers in various industries, starting with IT, software, tech, and creative agencies. The digital economy, which relies heavily on new-age platforms, is particularly vulnerable to this AI onslaught.
Although it’s still in the early stages, AI, trained on large language models (LLMs), is beginning to encroach on jobs across the spectrum. Specific indicators suggest that this AI revolution is underway.
IBM’s CEO, Arvind Krishna, recently stated, “I could easily see 30 per cent of jobs getting replaced by artificial intelligence and automation over a five-year period.” With around 26,000 employees at IBM, this could mean nearly 7,800 jobs replaced by AI in the coming years. However, this transition won’t be immediate, as IBM plans to pause hiring for roles that AI could potentially take over, particularly those in back-office or non-customer facing positions.
Arundhati Bhattacharya, CEO and Chairperson for Salesforce India, believes that generative AI, though a potential threat, has a silver lining. It can eliminate mundane and repetitive tasks, allowing people to focus on more creative work. “What generative AI actually will help us do is actually curate things so that they can be made relevant to us,” Bhattacharya explained.
A report from Goldman Sachs highlights the scope of the AI challenge, suggesting that artificial intelligence could replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs. Generative AI, which can create content indistinguishable from human work, is seen as a “major advancement.”
Sridhar Vembu, CEO and co-founder of Zoho, warns that AI poses a significant threat to programming jobs. He specifically points to conversational AI platforms like ChatGPT, predicting that they will impact the jobs of many programmers.
Carl Benedikt Frey, future-of-work director at Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding the extent of job displacement caused by generative AI. “There is no way of knowing how many jobs will be replaced by generative AI,” he asserts.
Research conducted by the University of Pennsylvania and OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, reveals that around 80 per cent of the workforce could see at least 10 per cent of their tasks affected by large language models (LLMs). About 19 per cent of workers may witness up to 50 per cent of their tasks impacted. This shift is not confined to specific industries; it spans across all wage levels.
Furthermore, the World Economic Forum predicts that AI will usher in three changes in the finance sector: job cuts, job creation, and increased efficiency. Banks have already begun integrating AI into their operations, with Morgan Stanley employing OpenAI-powered chatbots for wealth management.
Kristian Hammond, chief scientist of Natural Sciences, envisions a future where “90 per cent of news will be written by machines” within 15 years.
Some tech companies have even started hiring “prompt managers” to assist with office tasks using AI chatbots.
AI appears to be rapidly evolving into a force that may soon knock on our doors. Experts suggest that acquiring AI skills is crucial for the future workforce. As AI continues to advance, it’s not just automation we should fear, but the creative and conversational prowess of machines that may reshape our job landscape.
